Big Ten Predictions - Week 11

Just two weeks to go in Big Ten play, and 3 teams can still win the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. Here's how I see this week shaping up:

11:00 CST ESPN

Ohio State 24, Illinois 10 - Ohio State's defense is just too much for the inconsistent Illini offense to handle. Juice throws at least 2 interceptions.

11:00 CST ESPN2

Northwestern 31, Michigan 21 - CJ Bacher returns and leads Northwestern to win #8. Michigan is still too inconsistent and cannot put two consecutive games together yet.

11:03 CST Big Ten Network

Penn State 48, Indiana 10 - It's safe to say Penn State is a little angry after last week. Unfortunately for Indiana, that anger will be taken out on them. Overall series is 11-0 in favor of Penn State.

11:03 CST Big Ten Network

Iowa 35, Purdue 13 - The defense is again the key for Iowa. After last year's debacle against Western Michigan, they understand the importance of getting win #7, and play tough from the first whistle.

2:30 CST ABC

Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 19 - Things just keep getting worse and worse for the Gophers. With Decker out, and Wisconsin starting to regain the form that had them ranked in the Top 10, the Badgers take Paul Bunyan's Axe. It's a good thing Minnesota already has 7 wins...

What's in Your Wallet???

With just 2 games left in the season, and Iowa sporting a bowl-eligible 6-4 record, it is time to talk about possible bowl destinations.

To do this, we must figure out two things. First, the bowl selection order, and second, the Big Ten pecking order.

The order the bowls pick Big Ten teams for the 2008 season is as follows:
1) Rose Bowl
2) Second BCS (If applicable)
3) Capital One Bowl
4) Outback Bowl
5) Alamo Bowl
6) Champs Sports Bowl
7) Insight Bowl
8) Motor City Bowl

With that being said, the Big Ten looks to be in position to get two teams into the BCS this season. If Penn State and Ohio State both win their final two games, Penn State will head to the Rose Bowl as Big Ten Champions. Ohio State would most likely be in the Top 10 in the BCS Standings, and would be picked up as an at-large bid for any of the other 3 BCS Bowls (not including the BCS National Championship. The Buckeyes will most likely head to either the Fiesta Bowl or the Orange Bowl. The Sugar Bowl is almost certainly going to select the loser of the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship Game, and the last thing a bowl game wants is to see Ohio State get run over by an SEC team for the third consecutive season.

Then begins the non-BCS bowls and talks about Iowa start to take place. While it is unlikely, a spot in the Capital One Bowl is not out of the discussion. Don't believe me? Let's take a look at my projected final Big Ten Standings:

1. Penn State 11-1
2. Ohio State 10-2
3. Michigan State 9-3
4. Iowa 8-4
5. Northwestern 8-4
6. Minnesota 7-5
7. Wisconsin 7-5
8. Illinois 6-6
9. Purdue 4-8
10. Michigan 3-9
    
11. Indiana 3-9

The rule for selecting Big Ten teams for bowl games is as follows: The bowl can select a team with a worse record than another team, as long as the record is only worse by 1 game. For example, a 10-2 team could be selected over a 11-1 team, but a 9-3 team cannot be selected over an 11-1 team. An exception is, a 6-6 team may not be selected over a 7-5 team.

This means the Capital One Bowl would have 3 options: Michigan State, Iowa, and Northwestern.

While Michigan State and Northwestern both defeated Iowa during the regular season, Iowa will end the season stronger, and would be Penn State's only defeat all season. The importance of ending the season on a 3 game winning streak cannot be overstated.

If this scenario plays out, Michigan State ends the season with a loss to go along with getting blown out against Ohio State.

Northwestern would also be ending the season with a loss, and would have a 3-4 record in the last two months of the season.

Take into account the press time Iowa has received this week, and you have a very good chance at the Capital One Bowl selecting Iowa. Its only other reasonable option would be Michigan State with the better record.

The bottom line is, Iowa needs to take care of business, and they will be playing in January. An 8-4 Iowa team will get selected to the Outback Bowl long before an 8-4 Northwestern based on the larger fan base alone.